The Impact of Climate Change for Agriculture, Fishery & Tourism

The Impact of Climate Change For Morocco

The effects of climate change are more and more present in Morocco, which has been identified as very vulnerable country by the 4th Assessment Report of the United Nations intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Moroccan regions are affected by drought, increase of average temperatures, heat waves, changing rainfall patterns, extreme rainfalls, floods, sea level rise. Since the 1960s, an increase of 1° C has been observed throughout the entire country and projections show an increase of 1 to 1,5 ° until 2050 (3rd NC Morocco 2016) . Along with the temperature changes the mountain snow cover will further decrease. Rainfall has become more erratic and has declined by 3-30% in different regions. The seasonal pattern has also changed with increased precipitation - longer and intense rainfalls - in October and November causing often floods and substantial reductions during the rest of the year. Dry periods have become longer, particularly at the end of the rainy season. Annual rainfall will continue to drop over the 21st century and will affect large parts of the country. Projections show a decrease of average precipitations of 10 to 20% across the country, with a 30% decrease for the Saharan region by 2100 (3rd NC Morocco 2016). Dry periods will also extend of 5 days by 2100 (CSC Germany 2013). Extreme weather events such as heat waves, extreme rainfalls, floods, droughts have become more frequent and more severe. Drought in Morocco occurred once every five years prior to 1990 but once every two years from 1990-2000 (Burger, 2014). It is expected that heat waves will last 26 days longer in 2100 (CSC Germany 2013). Finally as result of many climate changes the sea level may rise between 18 and 59 cm before the end of the century (GIEC). Two third of Moroccan beaches are already threatened by erosion and the risk of storms along the coast is increasing (3rd NC Morocco). These climate changes already have important impacts on Morocco's natural, human and economic systems. Especially water resources are under increasing pressure. Water shortages are expected by 2020 and 2050 in some of the Southern regions(3rd NC Morocco).